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Enhancing Web Crawling with Scalable Algorithms and Noisy Signals
A Scalable Crawling Algorithm Utilizing Noisy Change-Indicating Signals By Róbert Busa-Fekete, Julian Zimmert, András György, Linhai Qiu, Tzu-wei Sung, Hao Shen, Hyomin Choi, Sharmila Subramaniam, Li Xiao DOI https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2502.02430 Abstract Web refresh crawling is the problem of keeping a cache of web pages fresh, that is, having the most recent copy available when a page […]
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Understanding Climate Risk: Its Impact on Corporate Value and Asset Management
Climate Risk and Corporate Value: Evidence from Temperature Bins and Panel Regression By Bo Wu DOI https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2503.14233 Abstract In empirical research, this article uses daily climate data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States to construct a temperature box with a range of 5°C, focusing on analyzing the impact […]
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Understanding Behavioral Biases in Machine Learning Predictions of Corporate Earnings
Behavioral Machine Learning? Computer Predictions of Corporate Earnings also Overreact By Murray Z. Frank, Jing Gao, Keer Yang DOI https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2303.16158 Abstract Machine learning algorithms are known to outperform human analysts in predicting corporate earnings, leading to their rapid adoption. However, we show that leading methods (XGBoost, neural nets, ChatGPT) systematically overreact to news. The overreaction […]
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Understanding Public Support for Environmental Regulations: Ideology vs. Knowledge
Public Support for Environmental Regulation: When Ideology Trumps Knowledge By Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt, Max R. P. Grossmann DOI https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2503.10821 Abstract When environmental regulations are unpopular, policymakers often attribute resistance to information frictions and poor communication. We test this idea in the context of a major climate policy: Germany’s Heating Law of 2023, which mandates the phase-out […]
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Economic Impact of China’s Tariff on U.S. Soybean Farmers: An Analysis
Economic Impact of China’s Retaliatory Soybean Tariff on U.S. Soybean Farmers By Xinyu Li DOI https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2503.10715 Abstract This paper analyzes the economic impact of China’s retaliatory soybean tariff on U.S. soybean farmers using advanced econometric methods and comprehensive datasets including USDA reports, trade data, and historical price movements. Theanalysis employs a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), […]
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Exploring Consumer Advertising Response: Symmetries, Scaling Laws, and Phase Transitions
Symmetries, Scaling Laws and Phase Transitions in Consumer Advertising Response By Javier Marin DOI https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2404.02175 Abstract Understanding how consumers respond to business advertising efforts is essential for optimizing marketing investment. This research introduces a new modeling approach based on the concepts of symmetries and scaling laws in physics to describe consumer response to advertising dynamics. […]
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Understanding Inequality in Capitalist Economies: Insights from the Social Architecture Model
Imagine a classroom where every student begins with the same amount of candy. As the teacher allows trading based on simple rules (some students become “bosses” and start collecting more candy from others), soon a few students end up with large piles of candy while most have much less. This simulation, though simplified, reflects the real-world dynamics of wealth concentration and inequality that the SA model aims to capture.
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Enhancing Armed Conflict Fatality Forecasts: Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction
Imagine you are forecasting the number of injuries in different regions after a natural disaster. Traditional models might predict “0 injuries” for most regions but miss the possibility of a few regions experiencing hundreds of injuries. With BCCP, you could divide the regions into groups (bins) based on factors like population density or previous injury counts. Then, for each group, you calculate a range that reliably includes the true injury count 90% of the time. This way, decision-makers can see not just an average prediction but a reliable range tailored to each specific group.
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The Economic Fallout of Star Wars: Analyzing Palpatine’s Legacy
This paper uses a mix of humor and serious economic modeling to explore how a sudden political and military upheaval could lead to an economic crisis. By borrowing methods from real-world finance, the study illustrates the potential fallout of large-scale defaults and the importance of having enough resources (bailout funds) to stabilize the economy in times of crisis. Although set in a fictional universe, the principles discussed are directly relevant to understanding financial contagion and systemic risk in any large, interconnected economic system.